Overnight stays in hotels temporary estimate – ex
Overnight stays in hotels
Statistics Iceland publishes statistics on overnight stays in hotels on a monthly basis, approximately 30 days after the end of each month, at which point data has been received from about 90% of hotels. Due to users' interest in getting information in a more timely manner, it was decided to use data from hotels that consistently submit immediately after the end of each month to get an initial assessment of each month's final numbers for bed occupancy rates and overnight stays in hotels.
Recently, the Icelandic tourism industry has gone through major changes in a short time. Such rapid changes underscore the need for timely statistics, but also pose problems for statistical processing. These preliminary estimates need to be interpreted with that in mind.
About 20% of hotels consistently submit data in the first few days after the end of each month. A study was carried out to see whether this data was useful for an initial assessment of bed occupancy rates and the number of overnight stays in hotels. Since these hotels are not randomly selected, the data are broken down by region and weighted to correct for this non-random selection.
For this subset of hotels with consistently early returns, data on bed occupancy rates and the number of overnight stays spanning the last few years were compared to the final results for each month. It turned out that bed occupancy and the number of overnight stays in hotels could be estimated every month with a 95% confidence limit.
This method makes it possible to estimate the bed occupancy and the number of overnight stays in hotels shortly after the end of each month, and the plan is to publish this plan within 10 days from the end of the month. It is our hope that this publication of more timely initial estimates will help indicate the latest developments in accommodation.
Around sevenfold increase in foreign overnight stays in hotels in June
Updated: 7 July 2021
Based on first reports on overnight stays in June, the preliminary estimate of overnight stays in hotels is 157,900 (95% confidence interval 145,900-169,900), thereof 49,200 Icelandic (95% CI 41,500-56,900) and 108,700 foreign overnight stays (95% CI 98,300-119,100).
Compared with 90,500 overnight stays in June 2020, there was an estimated 74,5% increase in June this year. Based on these initial estimates, there was around sevenfold increase in foreign overnight stays compared with June 2020, while Icelandic overnight stays decreased by 34,7%. For further comparison, there were 420,300 overnight stays in June 2019, thereof 382,200 by nondomestic tourists.
Based on the same estimates, bed occupancy rates in June 2021 were approximately 28.6% (95% CI 26.4%-30.8%) compared with 17.1% in June 2020.
The temporary estimate for overnight stays in May 2021 was 90,000 (95% CI 82,100-98,000). The final number of overnight stays in that month was considerably higher, or 102,800.
Hotels are currently going through a period of sudden change in hotel room supply, leading to a considerable increase in uncertainty in the initial estimates of overnight stays. These figures should therefore be taken with caution until the final number of overnight stays in hotels is published at the end of June.
Metadata for statistics on overnight stays: Accommodation, guests and overnight stays
Methodological description: Fast estimates of proportions and occupancy number of hotels (pdf)
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