Overnight stays in hotels temporary estimate – ex
Overnight stays in hotels
Statistics Iceland publishes statistics on overnight stays in hotels on a monthly basis, approximately 30 days after the end of each month, at which point data has been received from about 90% of hotels. Due to users' interest in getting information in a more timely manner, it was decided to use data from hotels that consistently submit immediately after the end of each month to get an initial assessment of each month's final numbers for bed occupancy rates and overnight stays in hotels.
Recently, the Icelandic tourism industry has gone through major changes in a short time. Such rapid changes underscore the need for timely statistics, but also pose problems for statistical processing. These preliminary estimates need to be interpreted with that in mind.
About 20% of hotels consistently submit data in the first few days after the end of each month. A study was carried out to see whether this data was useful for an initial assessment of bed occupancy rates and the number of overnight stays in hotels. Since these hotels are not randomly selected, the data are broken down by region and weighted to correct for this non-random selection.
For this subset of hotels with consistently early returns, data on bed occupancy rates and the number of overnight stays spanning the last few years were compared to the final results for each month. It turned out that bed occupancy and the number of overnight stays in hotels could be estimated every month with a 95% confidence limit.
This method makes it possible to estimate the bed occupancy and the number of overnight stays in hotels shortly after the end of each month, and the plan is to publish this plan within 10 days from the end of the month. It is our hope that this publication of more timely initial estimates will help indicate the latest developments in accommodation.
92% reduction in overnight stays in hotels in December
Updated: 8 January 2021
Based on first reports on overnight stays in December, the initial estimate of overnight stays in hotels is 25,000 (95% confidence interval 20,000-31,000), thereof 21,000 Icelandic (95% CI 17,000-26,000) and 4,000 foreign overnight stays (95% CI 2,000-6,000).
Compared with 307,200 overnight stays in December 2019, there was an estimated 92% reduction in December this year. Based on these initial estimates, Icelandic overnight stays decreased by approximately 33% compared with December 2019, whereas foreign overnight stays decreased by approximately 98.5%.
Based on the same estimates, bed occupancy rates in December 2020 were approximately 5.9% (95% CI 4.8%-7.0%), compared with 43.2% in December 2019.
Since comparisons of the initial estimates and final number of overnight stays revealed a bias which has led to an overestimation of the number of overnight stays, a correction factor was added to the estimation to account for this in October 2020. The temporary estimate for overnight stays in November 2020 was 24,000 (95% CI 20,000-28,000), whereas the final number of overnight stays was 24,305, which was well within the 95% confidence limits.
Metadata for statistics on overnight stays: Accommodation, guests and overnight stays
Methodological description: Fast estimates of proportions and occupancy number of hotels (pdf)
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