Experimental statistics

Population projections


Statistics Iceland publishes population projections by the end of each year. However, in March 2024 new and more accurate estimates of the resident population have been published by Statistics Iceland, based on a broader base of register data than on population register uniquely as done in previous years. Older population figures were similarly adjusted in accordance to this new procedure. As a result, an updated population forecast, based on the new time series became necessary and requested by users. This early in the year, not all new population figures are available (births, deaths, migration), therefore the new projections are experimental while still allowing us to collect feedback and prepare for the regular publication.


Statistics Iceland publishes experimental, updated population projections based on new estimates of the resident population and incompletely updated time series of births, deaths and migration.


To publish updated population projections based on new estimates of resident population before the regular, annual population projections results of the end of the year./p>

Preliminary population projections

Updated: 28 May 2024

Statistics Iceland publishes preliminary population projections 2025-2074, based on the new population estimates 2011-2024. The regular publication will follow at the end of the year, when all the necessary demographic time series become available. The population forecast is illustrated in the chart below and described in detail by the standard statistics included in the attached excel-file.


Experimental statistics: Preliminary population projections 240528 (xlsx)


The new method of estimating the resident population

The most recent population projections methodology

Use of these experimental statistics is free. Please quote the source.
For further information please contact+354 528 1100. E-mail: information@statice.is