A new issue of Statistical Series, presenting an economic forecast for 2021–2026, is now available.

GDP contracted by 6.6% in 2020 according to updated national accounts figures. Private consumption declined by 3.3%, investment by 6.8% while public consumption grew by 3.1%. Economic growth is expected to be 2.6% this year. The growth will be stronger next year, with GDP increasing by 4.8%. The economy is expected to grow by 3.8% in 2023 and 2.4% on average 2024-2026. Private consumption is expected to increase by 2.3% this year, 4.1% in 2022 and 3.5% 2023. Private consumption is expected to grow by 2.7% annually on average for the remainder of the forecasting period. Public consumption is expected to increase by 1.1% this year, 0.7% in 2022 and decrease by 0.3% on average 2023-2025. Public consumption is then expected to increase by 1.4% in 2026. Investment is expected to grow by 5% this year, 4.3% and 5.7% in 2022 and 2023. It will then increase by 2.5% annually on average in 2024-2026.

Exports of goods and services are expected to increase by 10.3% this year in parallel with the increase in tourists and an improvement in export of goods. In 2022, tourism will recover faster and exports are expected to increase by 16.8%. Exports continue to grow over the forecast horizon as tourism regains its former strength.

Umemployment was 6.4% last year and is estimated to average 7.8% this year. Participation rate fell sharply to 77.4% last year from 79% in 2019. The increase in unemployment was largely due to the impact of the pandemic on tourism, and the recovery will largely follow the increase in arrival of tourists in the coming years. The inflation outlook has deteriorated slightly since the economic forecast in October with inflation averaging 3.2% this year and declining to 2,4% in 2022.

The last economic forecast was published on the 1st of October 2020. The next forecast is scheduled for June 2021.

Economic forecast - Statistical Series