A new issue of Statistical Series, presenting the economic forecast for 2018–2023, is now available.
This years’ economic growth is expected to be lower in comparison with previous years. It is estimated that GDP growth will be 2.9% this year, and that private consumption will increase by 5.3%. Public consumption is forecasted to increase by 2.5% and investment by 3.2%. For the year 2019, GDP is expected to grow by 2.7%, private consumption by 3.9%, public consumption by 2.1% and investment by 4.9%. For the period 2020–2023, the GDP is projected to grow between 2.5% to 3.1%, private consumption by 2.5% to 3.1%, public consumption by 1.8% and investment on average by 2.8%.
Inflation is estimated to increase as the effects of strengthening of the currency will diminish and commodities prices increase. An increase in real prices of residential housing is anticipated, although it will be more moderate than in past years. Development of real wage growth in the coming year is under considerable uncertainty as wage agreements of the largest groups on the labour market are up for renewal next year. Job creation is expected to slow down coinciding with the decrease in economic activity.
A strong growth in private consumption is anticipated for the next two years, but that it will slow down as the economy slows. Residential and public investment is expected to grow considerably in the near term, which will though be countered by a significant reduction in large scale industrial investment. As in previous years, the negative contribution of the balance of trade to economic growth is expected to continue and the balance of payments surplus to decrease during the forecasting period.
The last economic forecast was published 23 February 2018. The next forecast is scheduled for November 2018.
Economic forecast, summer 2018 — Statistical Series