A new issue of Statistical Series, presenting an economic forecast for 2021–2027, is now available.

GDP contracted by 6.5% last year. Private consumption declined by 3% and investment by 8.7%, while public consumption grew by 4.5%. The economy is projected to grow by 3.9% this year. The growth will be stronger next year, with GDP increasing by 5.3%. Average annual economic growth is expected to be 2.3% for the remainder of the forecast horizon. Private consumption is forecast to grow by 3.8% this year and 4.9% next year. Public consumption growth is expected to slow down this year to 2.4% compared with 4.5% last year. Investment is expected to get back on track this year. Business investment is predicted to increase by 19% and public investment by 19.8%, but an 8.4% contraction is forecasted in housing investment. Exports of goods and services are estimated to increase by 14.9% this year. The outlook for 2022 has improved and exports of goods and services are projected to grow by 18.9% next year, mostly due to a recovering tourist sector and an increase in marine product exports.

Unemployment has fallen sharply in recent months and labour market slack is expected to diminish over the next years as the economy grows. Unemployment is estimated to be 6.5% on average this year and 5.3% in 2022. Inflation is expected to remain above the Central Bank´s upper limit into the next year. Increase in housing prices along with foreign cost pressures have made the inflation outlook worse. Inflation is expected to be 4.4% on average this year. In 2022, inflation is estimated to reach 3.3% on average as the exchange rate appreciates and foreign cost pressures ease.

The last economic forecast was published on the 22 March 2021.

The next forecast is scheduled for February 2022. The forecast is based on data available in mid-October.

Economic forecast — Statistical Series

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