A new issue of Statistical Series, presenting the economic forecast for 2017–2023, is now available.

The rapid growth of the Icelandic economy, which began in earnest in 2013, continues during 2017 but will slow to a moderate level in 2018–2023. GDP is expected to grow by 4.9% in 2017, 3.1% in 2018 and around 2.6% per annum during 2019–2023. Private consumption is expected to increase by 7.8% in 2017, 5.3% in 2018, 3.6% in 2019 and between 2.6–3.1% annually during 2020–2023. Investment is forecasted to increase by 8.8% in 2017, but be closer to GDP growth in the remaining years. Public consumption is expected to increase by 2.2% in 2017, 1.3% yearly 2018–2019 but around 1.8% per year during 2020–2023.

The major driver of Iceland’s current economic boom is tourism. As a result private consumption, disposable income, employment and real exchange rate have recovered to more or less the levels of the pre-financial crisis boom times and investment has grown to its historically average level. Contrary to previous economic booms there is a large current account surplus rather than a large deficit.

The last economic forecast was published on 31 May 2017. The next forecast is scheduled for February 2018.

Economic forecast, winter 2017 — Statistical Series