A publication on population projection is now available in Statistics Iceland‘s Statistical Series. The population in Iceland will increase from 317,600 in 2010 to 436,500 in 2060 according to the medium variant of the population projection of Statistics Iceland. The low variant projects a population of 386,500, while the high variant projects 493,800 persons by the end of the projection period.

The population will increase for most of the period, but mainly because of a high net migration. The low variant projects that number of deaths will surpass the number of births by 2052, whereas the medium and high variants show a natural increase throughout the projection period.

The net migration is projected to be negative until 2012. This is based on modelling migration behaviour and certain external variables (GDP, unemployment and number of high school graduates), explaining the migration of Icelandic and foreign citizens for the short term projection until 2015.

In all variants, life expectancy is expected to increase for men from 79.7 to 85.0 in 2060, and 83.3 to 87.1 for women. The population will age in the period. In all projection variants the share of older persons in the population will increase relative to that of younger persons. By 2060 the dependency ratio for the old will increase from 20.1 to 49.1, 44.1 or 39.9 in the low, medium and high variants, respectively.

As the first six years of the projection period are modelled using economic forecasts from economic growth and unemployment, it may be asked, what if the economic scenarios were different. At zero economic growth in the period 2011–2015 and high unemployment rate, and otherwise the assumptions of the low variant, the model predicts that the current population levels will be reached two years later. A more optimistic economic forecast would similarly hasten the population recovery by one year.

Population projection 2010-2060 - Statistical Series