Statistics Iceland has revised the population projection from 2010 for the years 2011–2060. The population is projected to be 433 thousand by the end of the period. The low variant projects that the number of inhabitants will be 384 thousand while the high variants projects 491 thousand.

The age structure of the population will change in the projection period. The number of inhabitants aged 65 years old and over will increase proportionally more than the working age population and the number of young people will decrease. The graph below shows the age structure according to the medium variant.

In all variants, net migration is projected to be positive in the long run. The positive net migration is because of foreign immigrants, but the number of Icelandic citizens who emigrate is assumed to be higher than the number of citizens who return. For the years 2011–2015 the projected net migration is based on modelling basic variables for the latest economic forecast. Figure 3 shows the projection with estimated confidence limits.