Alongside with the publication of Q2 2021 figures of national accounts, Statistics Iceland publishes first preliminary figures* for the year 2020, but provisional GDP figures based on the quarterly accounts were published on February 28th 2021. According to preliminary annual figures for 2020, GDP amounted to 2,941 billion ISK, a 6.5% decrease in volume from the previous year. Considering a 1.7% population growth in 2020, GDP per capita decreased by 8% in 2020.
Revised GDP figures for 2018-2019
The general rule for revising national accounts figures is that when publishing annual figures, in February and August, the results of the last three years are open for a revision. Older figures are considered final, but time series further back in time can be revised if necessary, e.g. due to changes in methodology. In parallel with the publication of preliminary results for 2020, the results of national accounts figures have been revised for the years 2018 and 2019.
| Revision of economic growth 2018-2020 | |||||||||
| Volume changes on previous year, % | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ||||||
| August 2021 | Previously published | Difference | August 2021 | Previously published | Difference | August 2021 | Previously published | Difference | |
| Private final consumption expenditur | 4.8 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.0 | -3.0 | -3.3 | 0.3 |
| Government final consumption | 4.7 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 |
| Gross fixed capital formation | 3.1 | 1.2 | 1.9 | -2.1 | -3.7 | 1.6 | -8.7 | -6.8 | -1.9 |
| Gross domestic final expenditu | 4.7 | 4.3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | -2.2 | -1.9 | -0.3 |
| Exports of goods and services | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 | -4.7 | -4.6 | 0.0 | -30.2 | -30.5 | 0.3 |
| Imports of goods and services | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 | -8.4 | -9.3 | 0.9 | -22.5 | -22.0 | -0.4 |
| Gross Domestic Product | 4.9 | 4.7 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | -0.1 | -6.5 | -6.6 | 0.1 |
Due to improved information, the treatment of leases of ships and aircrafts have changed from previously published figures, for the years 2018-2020. The impact of these changes appears in figures on external trade, capital formation and balance of payments. A distinction is made in the European System of Accounts (ESA 2010) between operating leases and financial leases. When assessing what should be classified as an operating or a financial lease, one has to take account of where the economic ownership of the asset in question lies, i.e. whether it is in the hands of the lessor or the lessee.
Economic ownership of an asset is not necessarily the same as legal ownership, where legal ownership refers to the registered owner of the asset in question but economic ownership takes account of where the risks and rewards of using the asset in production lie. If the lessor is the legal owner and the lessee bears the operating risk and is therefore the economic owner, a lease should be classified as financial. The aforementioned changes to previously published figures refer to leases of assets previously classified as operating leases and included in trade in services now classified as financial leases and included in trade in goods.
These changes lead to an increase in imports of goods as well as in investment, but a decrease in imports of services. The effect will also be visible in an increase in foreign debt and interest payments.
| Impact of revised treatment of leases 2018-2021 | |||
| Reference period | Million ISK at current prices | ||
| Import in services | Import of goods | GFCF | |
| 1st quarter 2018 | - | 4,782 | 4,782 |
| 2nd quarter 2018 | -106 | - | - |
| 3rd quarter 2018 | -110 | - | - |
| 4th quarter 2018 | -123 | - | - |
| 1st quarter 2019 | -245 | 17,324 | 17,324 |
| 2nd quarter 2019 | -501 | - | - |
| 3rd quarter 2019 | -508 | - | - |
| 4th quarter 2019 | -504 | - | - |
| 1st quarter 2020 | -524 | - | - |
| 2nd quarter 2020 | -577 | - | - |
| 3rd quarter 2020 | -562 | - | - |
| 4th quarter 2020 | -548 | - | - |
| 1st quarter 2021 | -523 | - | - |
*Around two months after the end of the reference year, Statistics Iceland publishes the estimated GDP for the fourth quarter of the reference year as well as the first provisional figures for annual GDP. This is the sum of quarterly measurements, according to the expenditure approach. The first results defined as preliminary figures are published around 8 months after the end of the reference year. The results of the national accounts are defined as preliminary figures until around 26 months after the end of the reference year.