An error was discovered in published figures on gross fixed capital formation in Q2 2019. All figures have been corrected.
The correction can be traced to mistakes that led to an underestimation of the gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) for the period underestimated by ISK 9.1 billion at current prices. The effect is expressed in two sub-items of GFCF, government services and in business sector investments, more specifically in investment in ships and aircraft. After a correction, 16.6% growth in public investment and 26.5% contraction in corporate investment is measured. The contraction in total investment is 9.2%, compared with 14.2% according to previously published results. After the adjustment, GDP growth measured 2.7% in real terms in the second quarter, compared with 1.4% according to previously published results. GDP in the first six months of 2019 increased by 0.9% compared with the first six months of 2018, but according to previously published results, the GDP growth was said to be 0.3%.
Web tables on Statistics Iceland's website have been updated accordingly.
Statistics Iceland apologises for the inconvenience this might have caused and will take appropriate measures to prevent it from recurring.
GDP increased by 2.7% in the 2nd quarter of 2019
Non-seasonally adjusted figures indicate a year over year increase in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2.7% for the 2nd quarter of 2019. Concurrently, Gross Domestic Final Expenditure (GDFE) increased by 0.2%. Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE) increased by 2.2%, Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) increased by 3.1% and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) decreased by 9.2%.
External trade contributes positively to the economic growth for the 2nd quarter of 2019 due to greater decrease of imports than exports. The balance of trade in goods and services for the 2nd quarter of 2019 was 9.4 billion ISK.
Seasonally adjusted GDP for the 2nd quarter of 2019 increased by 3.8% from the previous quarter.
|Quarterly national accounts, 2nd quarter of 2019|
|Current prices million ISK||Volume change on the same period of the previous year, %||Volume change from previous quarter,%|
|2nd quarter||2nd quarter||1st - 2nd quarter||2nd quarter|
|Private final consumption||390,144||2.2||2.2||0.9|
|Government final consumption||180,110||3.1||3.0||0.9|
|Gross fixed capital formation||169,404||-9.2||-13.8||26.9|
|Changes in inventories||2,128||0.6||…||…|
|Gross domestic final expenditure||741,786||0.2||-2.4||7.6|
|Exports of goods and services||329,154||-6.9||-2.8||-6.9|
|Imports of goods and services||-319,754||-12.4||-10.6||-0.3|
|Gross domestic product||751,186||2.7||0.9||3.8|
Revision of 1st quarter 2019
Revised figures indicate a year over year decrease in real GDP by 0.9% for the 1st quarter of 2019, compared with 1.7% increase according to previously published results, which were based on data containing information about residential investments that extended beyond the defined reference period of quarterly national accounts. According to the revision, increase in residential investments for the 1st quarter of 2019 was 22.2% instead of 58.4% as was previously published.
GDP increased by 0.9% in the first two quarters of 2019
In real terms, non-seasonally adjusted GDP for the first two quarters of 2019 increased by 0.9% compared with the same period in 2018. Total GDFE decreased by 2.4%. HFCE increased by 2.2%, GFCE by 3.0% and GFCF decreased by 13.8%. Concurrently, exports decreased by 2.8% while imports decreased by 10.6%.
Surplus of balance of trade in goods and services
The surplus of balance of trade in goods and services for the 2nd quarter of 2019 was 9.4 billion ISK according to preliminary figures, compared with a deficit of 500 million ISK for the 2nd quarter of 2018.
The deficit of trade in goods was 42.7 billion ISK while the surplus of balance of trade in services was 52.1 billion ISK for the 2nd quarter of 2019. Total exports of goods and services for the 2nd quarter of 2019 were 329.2 billion ISK while total imports of goods and services were 319.8 billion ISK.
Changes in Inventories
Inventories increased by 2 billion ISK at current year prices for the 2nd quarter of 2019, compared with a decrease by 8 billion ISK in the 1st quarter of 2019.
4.8% Economic growth for 2018 – revised figures
The revised annual national accounts for 2018 show a 4.8% increase in GDP in real terms, compared with a 4.4% growth in 2017.* Since 2010, GDP has increased in real terms by 34%. Taking into account population growth of 2.7%, GDP per capita increased by 2.1% in 2018. From 2010, GDP per capita has increased by 20.9% in real terms.
Due to changes in data with relations to the implementation of the Public Finance Act and delays in the delivery of government accounts data, published figures for national accounts are subject to changes as more information becomes available for the year 2018.
Planned benchmark revision and change of reference year
At the end of August 2020, a benchmark revision of national accounts is scheduled to be published. The revision is in accordance with Eurostat's policies and guidelines on benchmark revisions and their harmonized timing. According to the guidelines, benchmark revisions will take place every five years starting in 2019/2020 (depending on whether member states publish their revisions in 2019 or 2020 and every five years as of 2024). Further details of the planned revision will be reported in March 2020. Concurrently with the benchmark revision, the reference year for chain-linked volumes will be 2015 instead of 2005, as has been the case since 2011.
*The current revisions of annual figures are normally released twice a year. Version 1, named provisional data, is now published in end of February (t + 2 months). The 4th quarter of that year is published on the same day. The annual figures in the first publication, version 1, are partly a simple sum of the year’s four quarters based on the quarterly national accounts and only according to the expenditure approach. Version 2, named preliminary data, is released in end of August (t+8 months) and the 2nd quarter of the year on the same day. The national accounts are defined as preliminary figures until about 26 months after the end of the reference year.