The population of Iceland is projected to grow from 376 (registered population 1 January 2022) to an estimated value between 412 and 525 thousand in the next 50 years, with 90% probability, according to Statistics Iceland’s population projection. The most likely population value in 2073 is 467 thousand.
The upper limit (525 thousand) indicates that there is a 5% chance that the actual number of inhabitants will be higher than this value and a 95% chance that it will be lower. The lower limit (412 thousand) indicates that there is a 5% chance that the actual population will be smaller than this value and a 95% probability that it will be larger.
The population projection is based on new statistical models of fertility, mortality and migration which predictions are combined into total population predictions, according to standard statistical and demographical methods. The new models allow us to produce local projections and to incorporate the probability of overestimating the resident population due to a lack of deregistration, e.g. that the estimated resident population is about 2.5% smaller than the registered population.
The results of the new population projection consist of predicted values as well as their associated uncertainty measure. The projection does not include any effects due to possible crises caused by natural, social or economic factors.
The total fertility rate should reach 1.6 children per woman (of 13-55 years of age) in 2073, according to the median projection. Total fertility rate could have values between 1.5 and 1.7, with 90% probability, in 2073. The lowest predicted rate (1.5) for Iceland in 2073 is yet higher than the average EU total fertility rate of 1.4 which was reached in 2022.
Life expectancy at birth will grow from 84 years in 2022 to 89 years in 2073 for women and from 81 to 84 years for men, according to the median projection, i.e. an increase of about 0.1 years of life per year.
The number of immigrants will be higher than the number of emigrants for the whole period, due primarily to the migration of foreign citizens. The net Icelandic migration (difference between arrivals and departures) will preserve its past character, varying around zero for the next 50 years.
According to the population projection the following changes are predicted:
- The proportion of the working age population (defined as 16 to 74 years old) will decrease from 74% in 2022 to 68% in 2073, according to the median projections
- After 2055, the older age population (over 65 years) will become more numerous than the youngest (less than 20 years old), according to the median projections
Population ageing is caused by decreasing fertility and increased life expectancy. However, this development is still slower in Iceland than in the EU countries, due to high migration at young ages and to relatively high fertility compared with the EU average. The median age of the Icelandic population was 36 years in 2021 and is predicted to be 46 years in 2073. In comparison, the median age in the EU countries was already 44 years in 2021, a value which will not be reached in Iceland until 2058, according to the main projection.
The population projections in the past ten years have been based on multiple methods and models which were continuously improved and updated. This is illustrated by the following figure, where all predictions of 2012-2022 are plotted. One may easily notice that all projections before 2017, when the most recent economic boom has started, underestimated the population of the years that followed, especially short-term. The newer projections have incorporated this information and predicted higher short-term population levels, accordingly. The long-term predictions of all past projections (main variants) are not very different from each other. They span an interval of about 30 thousand inhabitants in the year 2060 for instance, i.e. less than 7% of the average predicted population total for that year.
A working paper detailing the new methods for the population projections will be published early 2023.