The population of Iceland is projected to grow from 384 thousand (estimated population, see a release in March) to a predicted value between 504 and 790 thousand in the next 50 years, with 90% probability, according to Statistics Iceland’s population projection. The most likely population value in 2074 is 605 thousand and Iceland could reach 500 thousand people in 15 years-time.
According to the population projection the following changes in population structure are predicted:
- The proportion of the working age population (defined as 16 to 74 years old) will decrease from 74% in 2024 to 70% in 2074, according to the median projections.
- After 2052, the older age population (over 65 years) will become more numerous than the youngest (less than 20 years old), according to the median projections.
- The median age of the Icelandic population was 36 years in 2024 and is predicted to be 50 years in 2074.
The upper limit (790 thousand) indicates that there is a 5% chance that the actual number of inhabitants will be higher than this value and a 95% chance that it will be lower. The lower limit (504 thousand) indicates that there is a 5% chance that the actual population will be smaller than this value and a 95% probability that it will be higher.
The population projection is based on statistical models of fertility, mortality and migration whose predictions are combined into total population predictions, according to standard statistical and demographical methods. The models allow the inclusion of prior expert information and the production of local projections. The results of the population projection consist of predicted values as well as their associated uncertainty measure, but it does not include any effects due to possible crises caused by natural, social or economic factors.
The figure shows the estimated values of the population counts and the forecasted trend of the resident population with prediction uncertainty.
The total fertility rate should reach 1.4 children per woman (of 13-55 years of age) in 2074, according to the median projection. Total fertility rate could have values between 1.3 and 1.5, with 90% probability, in 2074. Contrastingly, the average EU total fertility rate was 1.4 in the year 2022. Life expectancy at birth will grow from 84 years in 2023 to 89 years in 2073 for women and from 81 to 84 years for men, according to the median projection. The number of immigrants will be higher than the number of emigrants for the whole period, due primarily to the migration of foreign citizens. The net migration trend will lie between 1,000 and 9,000 individuals for the next 50 years with 90% probability.
Population ageing is caused by decreasing fertility and increased life expectancy. However, this development is still slower in Iceland than in the EU countries, due to high migration at young ages and to relatively high fertility compared with the EU average. The median age in the EU countries was 44 years in 2021, while this value will be reached in Iceland only in 2050, according to the median projection.