Methodology of population projections based on hierarchical Bayesian models

  • Statistical Series
  • 15. August 2023
  • Vol 108, Issue 3
  • ISSN: 1670-4770

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The population projections published by Statistics Iceland in 2022 are based on new statistical models of fertility, mortality and migration and their combined predictions. The projections are built by applying standard statistical and demographical methods. The new models and methods described in this paper allow us, in addition, to produce local projections and to incorporate the probability of overestimating the resident population. The overestimation effect is due to a lack of deregistration, e.g. the estimated resident population is about 2.5% smaller than the registered population. The results of the new population projections consist of predicted values as well as their associated uncertainty measures.

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